Will Pakistan Collapse?

Ahmad Reza Taheri , NISDA, PUNE, 07 May 2009: On 07 ^th May 2009, we had an interesting gathering. In fact, the Center of Advanced Strategic Studies (CASS) in association with National Center for International Security & Defense Analysis (NISDA) had organized a seminar on US President Obama's Afghanistan-Pakistan Policy & Its implication for India, at NISDA, University of Pune. Around 50 people including, university professors, army Generals and Majors and research scholars had attended the seminar. The seminar was followed only by one speaker. Lt Gen (Retd) Amitar Mukherjee, the former Director General, Air Defense Artillery and a Member of CASS presented his lecture on the issue.  

He talked about the threats of Al-Qaeda and other Jihadi terrorists who, according to him, are planning new attacks against their targets such as Americans, Pakistanis, Afghanis, and Indians. These terrorists are going to re-establish themselves in Pakistan and Afghanistan, he discussed.  

Amitar Mukherjee mainly focused on the following issues such as, disrupting terrorist networks in Afghanistan and especially in Pakistan to prevent them from terrorist attacks; promoting a more capable and accountable government in both Afghanistan and Pakistan; assisting efforts to enhance civilian control and bring about stable constitutional government in Pakistan; involving the international community to assist Pakistan and Afghanistan under the leadership of the United Nations; etc.  He talked about the role of Pakistan --- Pakistan is both the problem and the solution. So, priority must be given to Pakistan and in this respect international community including India should join hands to help Pakistan. He also talked about a new way forward which can be based on a diplomatic approach, and presented a number of suggestions such as a significant change in the administration of these states, expanding the Afghani national security forces, mobilizing greater international political support, and so forth. Otherwise, as he commented, the danger of failure is real and the implications would be grave. There are no quick fixes to achieve US national security interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The United States should do more to solve this essential security goal.

On the issue of Pakistan, I asked the General "if Pakistan failed to tackle the insurgency problem or terrorism, can this push Pakistan towards its disintegration?" He replied no, reasoning that Pakistan though is in the crisis, enjoys a strong civilian society. Moreover, army is the backbone of the country and would not allow Pakistan's collapse.

Contrary to many nationalists such as the Baloch and Sindis (however not all Sindis) who support the collapse of Pakistan, Mukherjee's view is different. As far as one side of the coin is concerned, I agree with this view of him because of two major reasons.

Firstly, the time has not come for Pakistan's collapse so far. In case of Pakistan's collapse an internal unstable situation may lead to a total chaos, leading Pakistan's neighbors to fun the flames by engaging Americans in there. Thus, Americans if are wise enough, better not to repeat their previous mistakes (of Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001 till the present i.e. 2009) in Pakistan. A disintegrated Pakistan may pave the way for the Islamic fundamentalists such as Taliban or the like-minded groups to rule each state autonomously by bringing back outdated customs and traditions, a trend which is against the interest of the western powers, as the new policy is to replace the dogmatic religious minded leaders with the so-called modern minded rulers, as it happened to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Saddam Husain was replaced from power in Iraq by Americans. Taliban were driven out from power in Afghanistan and Kharzai replaced them.

Secondly, to me, as far as the foreign policy of US is concerned, for now the presence of Pakistan is necessary to check and balance the power of India.

In order to fight terrorism or Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan, a soft approach is needed. American policy-makers under George W Bush's administration failed to deal with the crisis diplomatically; however, it seems that Barak Obama's policy can work better. US government under the administration of Barak Obama has started a soft approach towards Pakistan. The example can be taken of Iran too, though we have to wait and see how long they can be successful.

President Zardari's recent comment on Taliban, saying "we created Taliban," is a very technical and diplomatic method of combating terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan. This statement though is not a new one, carries one clear message to the world's radical Muslims. The message is to make them understand that these people (Taliban, Al-Qaida or terrorists) have been a direct product of  Pakistan and America, undermining their creditability or Jihadi reputation. This more or less has its own effects on dogmatic Muslims --- gradually may discourage the like-minded individuals not to join the puppets of the West... . The other side of the coin has a different story. I will deal with it separately.  

 Ahmad Reza Taheri

Research Fellow at the Center for International Security & Defense Analysis, University of Pune